Legislative and Ethical Issues COPYRIGHT PROTECTION IN THE DIGITAL PowerPoint Presentation

Legislative and Ethical Issues COPYRIGHT PROTECTION IN THE DIGITAL ENVIRONMENT - PowerPoint Presentation Example This type of convergence leads to innovation and tight competition that is beneficial to everyone. However, some rules require review in order to cater for the new technological developments and policies (Ogawa 2006). New growth types will be generated by a digital market that is genuine and benefits will be registered at all European Union sectors of economic (Mazziotti 2008). The e-commerce growth rate is skyrocketing nationally but it is still marginalised in the retail trade of Europe and this hinders online services development (Solovay & Reed 2003). The deficiency of knowledge about the applicable rules, rights conferred and opportunities offered by digital economy enhances their reluctance (Blythe 2011). The difficulties associated with transactions across the border such as deliveries, dispute resolutions and payments discourage business people from accepting the internet advantages to purchase or distribute their services and goods (Ogawa 2006). Digital single market therefore has a long way to go before achieving its complete potential. Objectives that are geared towards growth potential of online services and commerce must be set up (Solovay & Reed 2003). Their boosting at the European level needs action that is concerted and firm as stipulated in the Digital Agenda for Europe (Tian 2008). This commission is dedicated to working along with stakeholders in order to achieve the set objectives. Most of the initiatives outlined in this commission have been adopted (Perritt 2001). Peer-to-peer networking is making use of computers that are relatively powerful, are personal and their computing tasks are beyond those of the client (Campbell & Woodley 2002). The current personal computer has a large memory, very fast processor and a large hard disk, not all of which are used when browsing or e-mailing (Ogawa 2006). This computer acts as a server and a client (a peer) for several applications. The features of

Twister Party Essay Example for Free

Twister Party Essay Do you have the game of Twister sitting on your shelf collecting dust or buried in your basement gathering cobwebs?   It’s time to dust it off and revive an old party classic.   Twister is back and better than ever if you have the right mindset and group of friends to play along.   With several newer versions of the old game now available, you can even learn to dance as you play this all time favorite.   However, if you haven’t even played the basic version of the classic game, here is all you need to do for you and your college buddies to have a fun and entertaining evening.    You need to get the right group of friends together, play the game correctly, have the right mindset! Twister players come in all shapes and sizes, but they have one thing in common.   They all love to play the game. Find out which of your friends enjoy playing.   Those who say that they don’t, ask them to consider or at least to come over and watch and hang out while a group of more willing participants play.   By the end of the night, they should be hooked and ready to play.    If not, you at least have someone who can be the spinner, or if you have the dance version, the person who watches to see who messes up, â€Å"the judge†.   The right group of friends will enjoy playing whatever form of Twister you choose and will probably even be willing to come up with new twisted versions of the game.   Having a group of friends who are ready and willing to play is the first step in playing Twister.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Once you have your group of friends gathered, let the fun begin!   Playing Twister is very simple.   One player is the spinner, and he or she will spin the spinner.   The spin board has right hand, left hand, right foot and left foot on it with different colored circles, similar to the board.   Each player starts at a home row and then must do what the spinner calls out. For example, if the spinner lands on right hand and a red circle, the players must all place their right hands on a red circle.   You cannot share circles and sometimes circles are far away, so this game involves some stretching and sometimes compromising body positions and contortions. The first person to get stuck or who is not able to move or who falls down loses.   Players continue to â€Å"twist† their bodies all over the plastic mat until the best player is left standing, or rather sprawled across the board.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   In order to fully enjoy your night of Twister, you must have the right mindset.   If it is a game of skill you seek, make sure you stretch before hand so you are nimble and able to reach those hard to contort to positions.   If you are using the dance version, brush up a bit before hand and make sure you’re warmed up before beginning, but remember, it’s all about fun   and skill, unless you’re in it for cash.   Then it’s cutthroat!   If you’re playing something more risquà ©, be sure you feel comfortable in such a position and that you are ready for this type of action.   You know that it get’s pretty close and tangled in a game of Twister!   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The game of Twister is making a comeback, like many old toys and games.   This old classic is still a party favorite and you can revive it with your friends and have wonderful Twister parties if you have the right group of people, know how to play, and have the right mindset.

Shares and Business Law: Allotment and Registration

Shares and Business Law: Allotment and Registration Question 1 There are many things that Jim will have to consider but there are three main steps that he will have to follow. Most of the authority for issue of shares come from the articles of association (table A) with rest being contained in the Companies Act 1985. First he and the company would have to decide to issue the shares and set the terms of issue. Secondly, some person or persons must agree with the company to take the shares. Third, in implementation of that contract, those persons must take the shares and be made members of the company. Section 80A of the Companies Act 1985 provides that direction shall not exercise any power of the company to allot shares in the company or rights to subscribe for, or convert into, shares in the company unless they are authorised by the company in general meeting or by the company’s articles. Any authority, whether given in the articles or by resolution must state the maximum number of securities which can be issues under it and the date at which the authority will expire. Contravention of the section does not affect the validity of any allotment made[1] but any director, who â€Å"knowingly and wilfully† permits it, is liable to a fine[2]. Jim will have a choice of various methods whereby the companies securities can be offered to the public. Here we can see that he has engaged the services of an issuing house. The next thing Jim would have had to consider would have been whether or not there were any pre-emptive rights that is where there circumstances that existed that meant that existing shareholders rather than the general public should be offered the shares first[3]. This did obviously not arise here as Jim was a sole trader. Jim will then have to make a decision as to the price at which the securities should be issued. This is a difficult decision to arrive at as if the shares are set to low so that the issue is heavily over-subscribed, the company (and holding house) will be unhappy were as if they are set too high so that much of the issue is left with the underwriters it is they that will be uhappy Next Jim will have to deal with Allotment and Registration of the new share issue. The process of becoming a shares holder is a two-step one, involving fist a contract and then registration of the member. The processes of agreement and registration will be achieved with little formality and without the issue of allotment letters. If someone wants to become a shareholder and the company wants him to, he will be entered on the register and issued with a share certificate. Allotment does not make a person a member of the company. Entry in the register of members is also need to give the allotee legal title to the shares. Section 22(2) says explicitly that a person â€Å"who agrees to become a member of the company and whose name is entered on the register of members is a member of the company[4]† Question 2 In addition to compliance with the detailed provisions that are contained in the listing rules, s80 (1) of the Financial Services and Marketing Act 2000, implementing Article 21 (1) of the Listing Directive, adds an important â€Å"sweeping up†, requirement that the prospectus submitted to the FSA â€Å"shall contain all such information as investors and their professional advisors would reasonable require and reasonably expect to find† for the purpose of assessing the financial position of the issuer and the nature of the securities on offer: â€Å"Those who issue a prospectus, holding out to the public the great advantages which will accrue to persons who will take those shares†¦ and inviting them to take shares on the faith of the representations therein contained, are bound to state everything with strict and scrupulous accuracy and not only to abstain from stating as fact that which is not so, but to omit no one fact within their knowledge, the existence of which might in any degree affect the nature, or extent, or quality of the privileges and advantages which the prospectus holds out as inducements to take shares[5]† To determine whether or not the information that a rival cafà © chain had commenced legal proceedings against the company alleging that the design of its outlets and products infringed their intellectual property rights should have been disclosed in the prospectus to Zara s80(4)permits regard to be had not only to the nature of the issuer and of the securities but also to the nature of the persons likely to consider acquiring the securities, the knowledge which their professional advisers may be expected to have and to information already in the public domain by virtue of its publication under statutory or regulatory requirements. We are not made aware of any information about Zara’s advisers however the information is not information that is required to be in the public domain as a claim has been brought not actually heard. If the claim had been heard at court and been successful then it may fall in the public domain, therefore on this basis it is information that should hav e been disclosed in the prospectus. The next question that falls to be addressed as to whether Jim and JZ Horgan were persons who were responsible for the prospectus and this can be determined by reference to regulation 13 of the Public Offers of Securities Regulations.[6] The persons responsible are: The issuer (the company) The directors of the Issuer Each person who has authorised himself to be named, and is named, as having agreed to become a director, whether immediately or at a future time: Each person who accepts , and is stated as accepting, responsibility for, or for any part of, the prospectus Each other person who has authorised the contents o f the prospectus or any part of it: and The offeror of the securities and its directors where It is not the issuer It can therefore be seen that both Jim an JZ Horgan will be persons who are responsible to Zara and may therefore be required to indemnify her. JZ Horgan and Jim are responsible for the prospectus and are liable to pay compensation to any person who has acquired any of the securities to which it relates and suffered loss as a result of any untrue or misleading statement in it or of the omission of any matter required to be included under the Act or regulations[7]. The provisions do not require Zara to show that she relied on the misstatement in order to establish a cause of action, but she must be able to show at least a casual link between the misstatement or omission and the loss will have to be proven. Zara has said that she would not have bought the securities had she known about the action brought by the rival company. The loss is of course the one million pound that has been paid by the company and the resulting decrease in the value of the shares. As regards the bank, irrespective of their knowledge they will still be liable. This is because the statute does not require the maker of the statement to have â€Å"assume d responsibility† towards the claimant. Therefore Zara will be entitled to be compensated for the loss that she has suffered from. JZ Horgan and Jim could raise a defence. The defences that are available to them are contained in schedule 10 and regulation 15 and they provide persons responsible for the misstatement or omissions with â€Å"exemptions†. They will be able to escape liability if they can satisfy the court (a) that he reasonably believed that there were no misstatements or omissions and that he had done all that could reasonably be expected to ensure that there were not any and that, if any came to his knowledge, they were corrected in time or (b) that the plaintiff acquired the securities with knowledge of the falsity of the statement or of the matter omitted. Where the statement in question is made by an expert and is stated to be included with the experts consent, these rules are applied to the belief that the expert was competent and had consented to the inclusion of this statement. It is unlikely that JZ Horgan and Jim will be able to establish that either these exemptions apply and there fore will be considered to be liable to pay compensation to Zara. It should be noted that if for any reason this action to recover damages failed for any reason then Zara would be able to seek compensation against JZ Horgan and Jim in three other ways. The first would be damages at common law. The common law provides civil remedies for misrepresentations which have caused loss to those who have relied upon them[8]. Zara may well also have the common law option of her right to rescind the contract. The common law allows , in certain circumstances , claimants to rescind a contract entered into as a result of misrepresentation whether that misrepresentation is fraudulent , negligent or wholly innocent. Such a right would be actionable against the company only as the company is the person with whom Zara entered the contract with. The final alternative option would be to make a claim for breach of contract. The advantage of establishing this would be that the misrepresentee would have a claim in damages to be established to be assess on the contractual basis, rather than the tortious basis. Therefore Zara may be able to claim for heads of damages such as the loss of the expected profit on the shares. Question 3 Jim’s obligation under s80 (1) of the Financial Services and Marketing Act 2000, implementing Article 21 (1) of the Listing Directive, that the prospectus submitted to the FSA â€Å"shall contain all such information as investors and their professional advisors would reasonable require and reasonably expect to find† is a continuing obligation. Under s81, if after the preparation of a prospectus but before dealing in the securities begins there is any change significant for the purposes of making an informed assessment, the company must submit to the FSA a supplementary prospectus for approval. If the company is not aware of the change, it is not required to comply with the obligation, but any person responsible for the prospectus who does know of the change is under a duty to notify it to the company. To determine whether or not the information that the company has just settled an intellectual property claim for  £1million and that a profit warning is just about to be made should have been disclosed any purchasers of the securities s80(4)permits regard to be had not only to the nature of the issuer and of the securities but also to the nature of the persons likely to consider acquiring the securities, the knowledge which their professional advisers may be expected to have and to information already in the public domain by virtue of its publication under statutory or regulatory requirements. We are not made aware of any information about the purchasers advisers however the information is not information that is required to be in the public domain as a claim has been brought not actually heard. If the claim had been heard at court and been successful then it may fall in the public domain, therefore on this basis it is information that should have been disclosed in the prospectus. The next question that falls to be addressed as to whether Jim and JZ Horgan and now the company were persons who were responsible for the prospectus and this can be determined by reference to regulation 13 of the Public Offers of Securities Regulations.[9] The persons responsible are: The issuer (the company) The directors of the Issuer Each person who has authorised himself to be named, and is named, as having agreed to become a director, whether immediately or at a future time: Each person who accepts , and is stated as accepting, responsibility for, or for any part of, the prospectus Each other person who has authorised the contents o f the prospectus or any part of it: and The offeror of the securities and its directors where It is not the issuer It can therefore be seen that the company will be liable as the issuer of the securities. The company is liable for the misleading and or omission of information and are liable to pay compensation to any person who has acquired any of the securities to which it relates and suffered loss as a result of any untrue or misleading statement in it or of the omission of any matter required to be included under the Act or regulations[10]. The provisions do not require the purchasers to show that she relied on the misstatement in order to establish a cause of action, but she must be able to show at least a casual link between the misstatement or omission and the loss will have to be proven. The loss is of course the one million pound that has been paid by the company and the resulting decrease in the value of the shares. The Company could raise a defence. The defences that are available to them are contained in schedule 10 and regulation 15 and they provide persons responsible for the misstatement or omissions with â€Å"exemptions†. They will be able to escape liability if they can satisfy the court (a) that he reasonably believed that there were no misstatements or omissions and that he had done all that could reasonably be expected to ensure that there were not any and that, if any came to his knowledge, they were corrected in time or (b) that the plaintiff acquired the securities with knowledge of the falsity of the statement or of the matter omitted. Where the statement in question is made by an expert and is stated to be included with the experts consent, these rules are applied to the belief that the expert was competent and had consented to the inclusion of this statement. It is unlikely that the company will be able to establish that either these exemptions apply and therefore will be considered to be liable to pay compensation to the purchasers of the shares. It should be noted that if for any reason this action to recover damages failed for any reason then the purchasers would be able to seek compensation against the companyin three other ways. The first would be damages at common law. The common law provides civil remedies for misrepresentations which have caused loss to those who have relied upon them[11]. The company may well also have the common law option of her right to rescind the contract. The common law allows , in certain circumstances , claimants to rescind a contract entered into as a result of misrepresentation whether that misrepresentation is fraudulent , negligent or wholly innocent. Such a right would be actionable against the company only as the company is the person with whom the purchasers entered the contract with. The final alternative option would be to make a claim for breach of contract. The advantage of establishing this would be that the misrepresentee would have a claim in damages to be established to be asses s on the contractual basis, rather than the tortious basis. expected profit on the shares. In consideration of whether or not Jim will be liable to those purchasers himself the principle of limited liability should be considered. The principle of limited liability stipulates that a director/shareholder will be limited in personal liability to there shareholding, therefore on the face of it would seem that Jim is not personally liable. However, it should also be considered whether or not Jim had the actual authority to issue the shares. The reason that this question arises as when he originally issued the shares he was acting a sole trader, this is of course no longer the case and reference should therefore be made to the companies articles. If he was acting outside of his authority and not as an agent of the company it could be that he could be held personally liable for any loss which these shareholders have suffered from. Bibliography Legislation Companies Act 1985 Financial Services and Marketing Act 2000 Misrepresentation Act 1967 Public Offers of Securities Regulations Cases Derry v Peek (1889) 14 App Cass 337 Hedley Byrne Co Ltd v Heller Partners Ltd [1964] A C 465 New Brunswick and Canada Railway Co v Muggeridge (1860) 1 DR SM 363 Re Nuneaton Football Club [1989] BC L C 454 CA Books Bailey E, Groves H, Smith C , (2001) â€Å"Corporate Insolvency Law and Practice†, 2nd Edition, Butterworths Cheffins B, (1997) â€Å"Company Law: Theory Structure and Operation†, Clarendon Press Davies P, (2002) â€Å"An Introduction to Company Law†, Oxford University Press Davies P, (2002) â€Å"Gower and Davies Principles of Modern Company Law†, 7th Edition Sweet and Maxwell Griffin S , (2000) â€Å"Company Law: Fundamental Principles†, 3rd Edition, Harlow Press Hicks A Goo, (2001) â€Å"Cases and Materials in Company Law†, 4th Edition, Blackstone 1 Footnotes [1] S 80 (10) The Companies Act 1985 [2] S80 (9) The Companies Act 1985 [3] See Ss89 to 96 The Companies Act 1985 [4] See RE Nuneaton Football Club [1989] BC L C 454 CA [5] Per Kindersley V C in New Brunswick and Canada Railway Co v Muggeridge (1860) 1 DR SM 363 [6] SI 1995/1537 as amended [7] S90(1) and reg 14 (1) [8] See Derry v Peek (1889) 14 App Cass 337 ; The Misrepresentation Act 1967; Hedley Byrne Co Ltd v Heller Partners Ltd [1964] A C 465 [9] SI 1995/1537 as amended [10] S90(1) and reg 14 (1) [11] See Derry v Peek (1889) 14 App Cass 337 ; The Misrepresentation Act 1967; Hedley Byrne Co Ltd v Heller Partners Ltd [1964] A C 465 The Man Who Bombed Karachi: A Memoir by Admiral SM Nanda The Man Who Bombed Karachi: A Memoir by Admiral SM Nanda The book by Admiral SM Nanda, The Man Who Bombed Karachi: A Memoir, is an autobiography by an Indian Naval officer who retired as the Chief of Naval staff (CNS) and is often remembered for his most remarkable and vital role played during the planning and execution of maritime operations which led to the historical victory of India over Pakistan during the 1971 conflict. The author, who was the then CNS during the 1971 conflict with Pakistan, is the most qualified person to bring out the various aspects of the successful operations carried out by the Indian Navy on both the Western and Eastern theatres during the conflict. The book brings out a structured narration by the author of his childhood at Manora Island off Karachi where he was born. The initial chapters of the book, takes the reader from his childhood to the youth of the author at Minora, where he studied, and on completion of his high school, worked at the Port and Pilotage Department prior joining the Royal Indian Navy (RIN) and commissioned as an acting sub lieutenant in the Royal Indian Naval Volunteer Reserve (RINVR) on 11 Oct 1941. The author gives a detailed account of his experiences during his distinguished career in the Navy, which lasted 32 years and also about his subsequent tenure as the CMD of the Shipping Corporation of India (SCI). The reader gets firsthand information on the Royal Indian Navy Mutiny which is brought out in great detail in Chapter 3 of the book while narrating the authors tenure at the Signal School, HMIS Talwar, at Bombay. The book also provides brief account of the authors experiences with eminent personalities while he visited various countries during his tenures onboard various Naval ships. Chapter 9 of the book gives an insight on the evolvement of the nations capability in ship building, as the author narrates the numerous hurdles which he had to face as the Managing Director, Mazagon Docks, and how he successfully accomplished the assigned tasks. The book also provides numerous achievements of the author during his tenures as the Flag Officer Commanding Indian Fleet (FOCIF) and FOC-in-C West.   Transformation of a single day celebration of the Navy day to a weeklong Navy Week celebration consisting mega events including review of the Indian Fleet by the President of India in 1969 is one among them. On page 158, the author states that, 45 warships, Indias first submarine (the Khanderi), five Coast Guard ships and eight merchant ships were on parade during the fleet review on 28 Dec 1969. The reader could be confused after learning that the Indian Coast Guard was formally constituted only on 01 Feb 1977. The book narrates in detail, the evolvement of the 1971 conflict with Pakistan, the elaborate preparation planning and execution of the Naval power during the conflict and how effectively these culminated in the victory of the nation thereby rendering Navy a formidable force which was neglected till then. Chapters 12 to 15 of the book take the reader deeper into the conflict which offers interesting reading even to a layman with the help of simple, clear sketches and photographs. The sea battle which was fought in both Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal are discussed in detail with interesting narrations. In the section Way ahead, towards the later part of the book, the author also brings out suggestive measures for the future Indian Navy. It is felt that, the book has largely succeeded in providing a deep insight to the achievements of Admiral Sardarilal Mathradas Nanda(Retd.) PVSM, AVSM. The reader however may derive a feeling that, the author has also endeavored, to a certain extent; to clarify certain details pertaining to his reputation, especially his post retirement life.

Essays --

Accounting is used as a tools to inform investors and other stakeholders about management’s performance. However, accounting standards permits management to use judgment in financial reporting methods for some accounts as they have best knowledge of its business so it can choose accounting alternatives that suit their business. With ability to choose its preferable reporting methods, estimates and disclosure, this flexibility creates opportunity for managers to distort earnings in which they adopt accounting methods that do not truly reflect firms’ financial status (Healy and Wahlen, 1999). In addition, due to the fact that management has better access to firms’ business transactions and operations than stakeholders do and auditing and monitoring system are not always effective, these lead to an information asymmetry problem which increases earnings management opportunity. For example, they can alter some information and do not disclose all the information to the stakeholders. This essay will first describe the definition of earnings management and its evolution. Then, the proxies used to detect earnings management will be illustrated. Next, the motives for earnings management and its effect on financial reporting process will be discussed. Subsequently, it will turn to the impact of debt financing on earnings management. Finally, this paper will examine the factors that may constrain the degree of earnings management. Definition of earnings management and its evolution Many researchers has given different earnings management definitions. For instance, Healy and Wahlen (1999,p.368) states that ‘Earnings management occurs when managers use judgment in financial reporting and in structuring transactions to alter financial repor... ...orts (Houqe et al., 2012) Also, the adaptation of widely-used accounting standards, for example, IFRS, may help prevent management from manipulating financial information and, therefore, improve the quality of earnings because such standards require managers to provide a true and fair view of its report and may help reduce the earnings management activities. Houqe et al. (2012) conclude that the adoption of mandatory IFRS increases the quality of earnings in the countries that provide strong protection for investors. However, there is some controversy if accounting standards would reduce earnings management. Tendeloo and Vanstraelen (2005, cited in Houqe et al., 2012) and Lin and Paananen (2009, cited in Houqe et al., 2012) find that after adopting IFRS, firms in Germany recorded more discretionary accruals and those accruals are lowly-correlated with cash flows.

Airline Demand Forecast

STIMATION OF AIR TRAVEL DEMAND IN TURKEY ENAR TUNC, Orhan sIvrIkaya* Okan UNIVERSITY Title: ESTIMATION OF AIR TRAVEL DEMAND IN TURKEY Orhan Sivrikaya*(Candidate Phd. ), OKAN UNIVERSITY Tel: 0-532-4265392 Fax: [0-212-4652299] Email: [email  protected] com Enar Tunc, Professor of Industrial Engineering, OKAN UNIVERSITY Keywords * Domestic Air Transportation, City Pair, Origin and Destination, Demand, Forecast, Gravity Model, Multivariate Regression and Detour Factor. Total Page: 11 AbstractAccuracy in estimating airline market demand is a key element while an airline is planning its short term or long term business plan regardless of its status quo being an incumbent or startup company. Turkish domestic market of air travel industry has been dramatically grown in recent years especially after the deregulation commencing on the renewal of air transportation policy in 2003. However there is not any relevant scientific research in the literature to analyze the determining factors on air travel demand of domestic city pairs in Turkey.A multivariate regression model is generated in order to fit the air travel demand in number of passengers carried. The model is based on aggregate individual market which consists of on-line city pairs. The model is found significantly representative within the experimental data out of the years 2008 and 2009 including the origin and destination pairs for 40 on-line cities. Then, the model is tested by using 2010 figures in order to compare prediction values with actual figures. Accuracy level is found to be encouraging for potential new airports or potential new routes to be evaluated by using the model estimates. . Introduction The deregulation of air transportation market in Turkey in 2003 has started revolutionary changes in the airline industry. New government having the target to increase the portion of air travel out of all modes of local transportation attempted to encourage more airline companies to enter the market and enabl e them to offer more attractive prices by tax cutting specific to the airline sector. Price oriented competition has worked very well to generate significant airline passenger traffic.Low Cost Carriers have contributed to exercise a sustainable two digit growth by stealing passenger traffic from bus transportation as a result of shortening the gap between relative prices. Turkish Airlines as a legacy carrier has responded to structural changes in the market by applying dynamic pricing policy and growth strategy to benefit from economies of scale resulting in increase in productivity. Big changes in airline passenger traffic in Turkey create a challenge to testify any claiming model built to estimate air travel demand. Macroeconomic or demographic changes do not seem to be responsible for whole boost in air travel demand.Competition doubled or tripled available seat capacity on some routes so that it was required a different strategy to generate additional demand to achieve in satisf actory load factor which is a key performance indicator for airline profitability. Airline traffic is most of the time considered as a significant indicator for the performance of the nation’s entire industry since it is highly correlated with the number of business events and interactions with other industries simultaneously. So, it implies that changes in economies may influence airlines traffic indirectly.However, airline specific parameters like ticket price and degrees of competition are also supposed to be main driver for passenger demand besides the macroeconomic factors. The sustainable success of any organization or company is closely related with how well management or decision makers are able to foresee the future and develop appropriate strategies. The objective of this study is to examine the demand size for air transport in Turkey and show its implications for air transport planning. 2. BACKGROUND It has been seen throughout the results of the previous research in the iterature that one of the most important issue to develop a predictive model is to choose the right combination of the variables which represent the determining factors involved in the model. These variables are categorized by two subgroups (Carson et al. 2010): 1. Geo-economics Factors: which consist of geographical characteristics, economical activities, social factor etc. 2. Service Related Factors: which are related to airline dependent factors. The other prominent aspect of model generation is the level of forecast which can be classified by two groups as well; 1.Microscopic Model: Airport specific or city pair specific data is involved such that it refers the total number of incoming and outgoing passengers per particular airport or per city pair. 2. Macroscopic Model: Region or country specific data is involved such that it refers to aggregated number of passengers in a region or country regardless of origin or destination city. Aggregate Individual Market (AIM) foreca st outperforms the aggregate approach since the forecasting power gained by exploiting heterogeneous information across markets dominates the forecasting power lost due to estimation of many coefficients (Carson et al. 2010).Local area information appears to be more relevant in determining local O&D travel than of national information such as gross domestic product (Bhadra 2003). ————————————————- 3. OVERVIEW OF THE determ? nants for air passenger demand ? n turkey Turkey is spread over a wide geographical area and road ways are not adequately constructed for all direction. Hence, air transportation is supposed to have more shares out of total statistics in domestic transportation covering all possible city pairs. While the gap between relative prices is being shortened, more and more people find it affordable to fly.This study is aiming to find out the determining fac tors which are concerned to turn potential demand into air travel passengers. The proposed model is not only to explain actual traffic results but also to estimate potential traffic between cross cities which are not connected directly or to evaluate off-line cities to build new airport. Population, gross domestic product per capita and employment rate are considered as the leading macroeconomic dynamics behind air travel demand as depicted in the Table 1. Average fare has a stimulating effect on airline demand as Brons et al. 2002) pointed out that ticket price is an elastic driver for airline demand generation. There are also specific indicators for a particular city pair traffic representing interactivity between the concerning cities such as distance and number of migrants from each other. The number of bus registered in a city is indicating the volume of bus transportation which is considered to be negatively related with air travel demand. Since number of carriers as a degree of competition contributes to market expansion, it is also embedded in the model expecting a positive relation with air travel demand.Table 1 Commonality in Types of Variables Variable’s Name| Percentage of Occurrence*| GDP| 50. 0 %| GDP per Capita| 35. 7 %| Unemployment Rate| 14. 3 %| Fuel Price| 7. 1 %| Number of Employees| 7. 1 %| Population| 42. 8 %| Average Fare| 57. 1 %| CPI| 14. 3 %| Trade per Capita| 14. 3 %| Exchange Rate| 14. 3 %| Service Frequency| 28. 6 %| Distance| 42. 8 %| Expenditures| 7. 1 %| * The percentages are calculated out of a sample of 14 different relevant articles. Most of the itineraries between city pairs are not directly connected that means air passengers travel with connecting flights via one or more transfer points.If there is no direct service the dummy variable transit gets 1 and 0 otherwise. Naturally, passengers would not prefer to fly with connecting flights so it is anticipated to be negatively affecting air travel demand. 4. ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION data, Methodology and results Data availability is main issue when data coverage is decided. Experimental model is based on the data of the two years 2008 and 2009 since all explanatory variables are available within the specified period. There are 40 on-line destinations in domestic network in Turkey.This number of destinations can theoretically generate 1560 different origin and destinations (O&D’s) on which direct or connecting flights are possible. However experimental sample does not cover data for all possible on-line O&D’s because some city pairs which are at close distance are not meaningful to fly with connecting flights or the concerning flights are not connected each other. There are 231 city pairs which are served with direct flights, whereas the remaining city pairs are found to be flown by connecting flights via an appropriate domestic hub.Under the assumption of approximately the same number of O&D’s for each year, data size will be duplicated for the two year’s period. Airport statistics for all scheduled carriers are used in the experimental model as a source of the dependent variable. Transfer traffic is removed from the statistics for each city pair, since the proposed model is to estimate pure O&D passenger by using data specific to the corresponding city pairs. Average prices for each city pair are estimated by using airlines’ web site. Road distance between the cities is taken from the web site of the General Directorate Highways of Turkey.Population of the cities, GDP per capita of the cities, the number of migrants between the cities, the number of bus registered in the city’s account and labour rate of the cities are obtained from the Bureau of Statistics in Turkey. Weighted average of the corresponding city’s population is used, while GDP per capita and the labour rate are being converted to O&D level. A variety of different models exist for passenger volu me estimation. Since no single model guarantees accuracy, airlines in fact compare forecasts from several different models.Within this set of forecasting methods, the most demand models used are of the simple gravity type formulation. (S. C. Wirasinghe et al. 1998). The gravity model for the estimation of domestic passenger volume between city-pairs is examined in this study. By excluding unavailable service-related or market specific input variables, and using cross-sectional calibration data, the model is particularly applicable to city-pairs where no air service exists, historical data is unavailable, or factors describing the current service level of air transportation are not available.Average price for city-pairs with no air service is estimated by fall back mechanism that it uses the average price which is normalized by distance of the cities having similar market structure. All other explanatory variables are not service related factors and available for the city-pairs with no air service. The gravity model takes the form: D=?. AaBbCc†¦ This model assumes that the marginal effects of each variable on demand are not constant but depend on both the value of the variable and the values of all other variables in the demand function (Aderamo 2010).In other words, the explanatory variables affect demand in multiplicative manner. Partial derivation of any independent variable proves aforementioned relationship. However, this model can be made suitable for multiple regressions by applying logarithmic transformation. Logarithmic form of the gravity model takes the form: LogD=? 0 + ? 1LogA + ? 2LogB + ? 3LogC +†¦ where ? 0=Log? It is obvious that interdependency is resolved in this form so that multiple regression model can be applied. The proposed multiple regression model is generated by using SAS Jmp 9 tool.Table 2 shows the matrix of correlation between the independent variables. The results show that some of the variables are interrelated. For exa mple, Log_Migrant has a correlation coefficient of 0. 8661 and 0. 8150 with Log_Pop* and Log_Bus* respectively. Where both Log_Migrant* and Log_Pop* are calculated by taking the product of population of origin and destination cities. However, omitting any of these two variables would substantially reduce the model fit. As the goal is to obtain a reliable estimation of the passenger volume, all interrelated variables were included (Grosche et al. 007). Furthermore, it has been said that if the sole purpose of regression analysis is prediction or forecasting, then multicollinearity is not a serious problem because the higher R2, the better prediction(R. C. Geary, 1963). In order to verify stepwise regression fit of the model, stepwise process by backward direction and minimum AICc selection is used. When all independent variables as depicted in Table 2 are entered, the smallest AICc value 2665. 913 is found. Adjusted R2 as shown in the Table 3 is 0. 823991 which is fairly good.In the Table 4, adjusted R2’s are compared including the relevant articles in the reference list. This comparison table shows that the studied model efficiency is relatively successful. As shown in the table 5, the F test also shows that the regression is significant since F statistic of 497. 2411 is obviously higher than the critical value of 2. 32 at 0. 01 level of significance. In the table 6, parameter estimates are depicted. As seen in the table, all independent variables are significant at 0. 01 level of two tail significance considering their t-statistics.Since the coefficients of the regression model represent elasticities of the corresponding variables, how change of any variable affects demand estimation can be determined. The price elasticity of passenger demand is approximately -1. 1 which implies that airline passenger demand in Turkey is elastic. This finding is compliant with the fact that after low cost carriers entered into the market by lowering ticket prices, mark et size has been tramendously enlarged. Domestic passenger traffic grows higher than the decreasing rate of ticket price.Both GDP per capita and ticket price seem to have elastic impact on passenger demand estimation. Air transportation and bus transportation seem to be competing each other because of their negative relation. When air service is provided by connecting flight which means transit traffic, air transport demand is decreasing. This result is not surprising because people do prefer to fly directly. Another result is that the number of airlines participating in each O&D market tends to have a positive impact on the number of passengers traveled between O&D pairs, perhaps representing the ffects of choice more than anything else. Lastly, distance and the number of migrants are found positively related with air transport demand as expected. Table 4 Model Efficiency Benchmark| Research Name| Level of Forecast| Author| Year| Independent Variables| Observation| Adjusted R Square| Demand For Air Transport In Nigeria| Aggregate| Adekunle J. Aderamo| 2010| Index of AgricultureIndex of ElectricityGDP| 23| 0. 923| Air Travel Domestic Demand Model in Bangladesh| Aggregate| Md. Jobair Bin Alam Dewan Masud KArim| 1998| PopulationGDPDistance| 31| 0. 8| An Econometric Analysis of Air Travel Demand in Saudi Arabia| Aggregate| Seraj Y. Abed Abdullah O. Ba-FailSajjad M. Jasimuddin| 2001| PopulationTotal Expenditures| 25| 0. 959| Regression Model for Passenger Demand: A case study of Cairo Airport| Aggregate| Dr. Khaled A. Abbas| 2003| Population GDPForeign Tourist| 88| 0. 82| Demand for Airravel In USA| O&D| Dipasis Bhadra| 2003| Density, Interaction, Distance, Marketshare, Fare| 2424| 0. 57| An Aggregate Demand Model in Hub-and-Spoke| Aggregate| Wenbin WeiMark Hansen| 2006| Frequency, Number of Spokes, Fare, Distance, Capacity, Traffic Type| 897| 0. 92| Gravity Model for Airline Passenger Volume Estimation| City-pairs| Tobias GroscheFranz RothlaufArmin He inzl| 2007| DistancePopulationCatchment Area| 956| 0. 761| The number of migrants indicates the relationship between city-pairs hence it positively affects on point to point air traffic demand. When distance is greater, air transport demand increases due to the fact that people get higher utility comparing to the alternative modes of transportation. In the figure 1, model fit of the experimental data is shown in scatter diagram. There are total 955 observations within experimental data.A test data is obtained from 2010 actual results which consists of 562 observations. The model predicts 2010 figures with a Mape (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value 14. 1 %. Actual data of 2010 is refined by excluding the O&D’s having less than 104 yearly passengers flow and detour factors smaller than 3. Logic of this filtering is to choose meaningful connections out of the all itineraries. Although the model is performing significantly well with a relatively high Rsquare value, small d iscrepancy in prediction value may result in larger inaccuracy in passenger demand estimate because of logarithmic aspect of the regression. . CONCLUSION This study demonstrated that the proposed econometric estimation and using micro data based on local area information can result in substantial insights to O&D travel. The demand model reveals all the quantitative relationships among the used variables, which is helpful for airlines to understand the consequence of change of their decision variables or adjustment of their routing structures, and also useful for the related authority to quantify the benefits of airport capacity expansion and to take into account while airport building plan is being evaluated.It would be advantageous to extend the time period covered by the analysis. This would enable to examine possible differences in elasticity amongst city-pairs. Extending the data back in time would also provide observations of airfares progress. The model efficiency may be i mproved for even more reliable estimation, if more independent variables indicating bilateral relations between city-pairs are embedded in the model such as the number of call between city-pairs or credit card statistics of domestic visitors. References S. C. Wirasinghe and A. S. Kumarage, An Aggregate Demand Model for Intercity Passenger Travel in Sri Lanka.Transportation 25: 77-98, 1998. R. C. Geary, Some Results about Relations between Stochastic Variables: A Discussion Document, Review of International Statistical Institute, Vol. 31, pp. 163-181, 1963. Richard T. Carson, Tolga Cenesizoglu and Roger Parker. Aggregate Demand for USA Commercial Air Travel. Department of Economics, University of California. 2010. Elton Fernandes and Ricardo Rodrigues Pacheco. Air Transportation Analysis: Passenger Demand in Brazil. Aerlines Magazine e-zine edition, issue 33. Adakunle J. Aderamo. Demand for Air Transport in Nigeria. Journal of Economics, 1 (1): 23-31 (2010).Md. Jobair Bin Alem and De wan Masud Karim. Air Travel Demand Model For Domestic Air Transportation in Bangladesh. Journal of Civil Engineering The Institution of Engineers, Bangladesh Vol. CE 26, No. 1, 1998. Seraj Y. Abed, Abdullah O. Ba-Fail and Sajjad M. Jasimuddin. An Econometric Analysis of International Air Travel Demand in Saudi Arabia. Journal of Air Transport Management 7 (2001) 143-148. Abdullah O. Ba-Fail and Seraj Y. Abed. The Determinants of Domestic Air Travel Demand in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Journal of Air Transportation World Wide Vol. 5, No. 2 – 2000. Abdullah Omer Ba-Fail.Applying Data Mining Techniques To Forecast Number of Airline Passengers In Saudi Arabia (Domestic and International Travels). Aviation Institute, University of Nabraska at Omaha, 2004. Senanu Ashiabor, Hojong Baik and Antonio Trani. Logit Models For Forecasting Nationwide Intercity Travel Demand in the USA. Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2007, Washington, D. C. , pp. 1-12 2007. J. Scott Arm strong and Michael C. Grohman. A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting. Management Science, 19 (2), pp. 211-221 1972. Khaled A. Abbas. Conceptual and Regression Models for Passenger Demand Prediction.Aerlines Magazine e-zine edition, issue 26 2003. Dipasis Bhadra. Demand for Air Travel in the United States: Bottom-up Econometric Estimation and Implications for Forecasts by Origin and Destination Pairs. Journal of Air Transportation Vol. 8, No. 2 – 2003. Radosav B. Jovanovic. Generalised Intrinsic Characteristics as a Forecasting Tool: A dynamic perpective. Second International Conference on Research in Air Transportation – Belgrade, June 24–28 2006. Martijn Brons, Eric Pels, Peter Nijkamp and Piet Rietveld. Price Elasticities of Demand for Passenger Air Travel. Journal of Air Transport Management 8 pp. 65-175 2002. Dail Umamil Asri and Yoriyasu Sugie. Simultaneous Demand Model for Passenger Travel. Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol. 4, October, 2003. Joyce Dargay and Mark Hanly. The Determinants of the Demand for International Air Travel to and from UK. ESRC Transport Studies Unit, Centre for Transport Studies, University College London, November 2001. Catherine Zhukovskaya. Use of the Generalized Linear Model in Forecasting the Air Passengers’ Conveyances from EU Countries. Computer Modelling and Technologies, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 62–72, 2007. Wenbin Wei and Mark Hansen.An Aggregate Demand Model for Air Passenger Traffic in the Hub and Spoke Network. Transportation Research Part A 40 pp. 841–851, 2006. Matthew G. Karlaftis. Demand Forecasting in Regional Airports. Straer 7 pp. 100-111, Tr. 312, 2008. Tobias Grosche, Franz Rothlauf and Armin Heinzl. Gravity Models for Airline Passenger Volume Estimation. Journal of Air Transport Management 13 pp. 175-183, 2007. Chaug-Ing Hsu and Su-Miao Liu. Predicting City-Pair Air Passenger Traffic Using Grey Topological F orecasting Model. Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol. 5, October, 2003.

PASS Lifestyle, Leisure and Recreation Essay

Introduction: The recreation and leisure activities present in our world today are differ from what generations 100 years ago participated in. Our physical environment is changing continuously under the effect of natural, cultural and economic systems which influence people’s lifestyles. As lifestyles change, peoples’ way of spending their leisure time, and leisure activity preferences, also change. Urban open public spaces such as parks seem to lose their popularity as shopping malls have become the new leisure centres due to the increasing need â€Å"to consume† of today’s societies. Our age has the accessibility of information and convenience of abundant transport to take us the venues that we can enjoy ourselves, or free ourselves from the issues of our daily life. Information of available activities that we know today, mainly come from sources such as the internet and the television or media. Media has shaped the many lifestyles of today, via their advertising of activities and appliances. By shifting our lifestyle, some of our interests in recreation and leisure have changed over the ages. Activities that existed 100 years ago but not today: Stickball. Stickball was a street game that is immensely related to baseball which adapts to the environment it was played in. The activity only required a rubber ball and a stick of any form. This activity has gradually died out, as people started to earn more money to afford playing other sports that involved swinging at a ball. The media also helped advertise America’s Major League Baseball, which put peoples’ interest into a more popular activity. Some people believe that this activity did not actually die out as it was the origin of all bat-and-ball sports that exist today. Playing Cards and Dominoes Since people living in the early 1900s, mainly middle-aged men, gathered together at bars after their day’s work, they took attraction to group activities. Their main activities were card games which involved betting small amounts of money or a glass of beer. In their houses, Dominoes was a common family game which appealed to all age groups. In today’s lifestyle, not all people have the luxury of time to participate in these activities or have lost interest due to the introduction of personal technological devices. These devices include the popularised iPod and computers, in which people can ‘surf’ the internet to find out many leisure and recreational activities which suit their lifestyle. Activities that exist now but not 100 years ago: Shopping The availability of shopping centres has increased rapidly in the past 10 years, as the world’s economy grew, and the average earning of families increased. The shopping for recreation and leisure of today mainly refers to excessive buying of ‘wanted’ materials for interest of the buyer. This modern activity is common among females, usually in groups. It fits into the lifestyles of women who do not work on weekends, and consumes much of the day, thus the inclusion of food courts in shopping centres. 100 years ago, shopping was not popularised as income of an average household was lower, and many women had to stay home to attend to the housework. The availability of shopping centres and transport to shopping centre venues was limited during that time. Most of the time, shopping was a chore rather than a leisure activity because it involved buying needs for the family, such as food and learning materials. Extreme Sports With increased knowledge and equipment to ensure safety, extreme sports are quite popular in modern society. These activities often involve speed, height, a high level of physical exertion, and they can help isolate thoughts of current issues, help set new goals, and improve physical fitness. Some extreme sports which are available near suburban areas are: mountain bike riding, indoor or outdoor rock-climbing, body boarding and canoeing. In the 1900s, people were not aware of these activities due to the inconvenience of less media sources. Among teenagers and young adults, free running is particularly popular in city areas which have a variety of artificial environments. This activity did not exist 100 years ago because it originated from later popular movements like graffiti and internet groups. Dining Out The modern society values the bonding of couples more than the world 100 years ago. A common activity amongst couples is dining out, to create an atmosphere of romanticism. By observing the growing population, the variety of employed jobs is also growing. The food industry is one of the largest in the world, and has led to the creation of restaurants of different cuisines. Since the countries of the world are becoming more multicultural, people want to break away from eating their traditional foods. Dining out provides a solution to changing tastes, and may sometimes aid in saving time as cooking at home may take several hours when attempting to provide fine food. Activities which existed 100 years ago and still exist now: Soccer 100 years ago, soccer teams received growing groups of supporting members and fans that popularise the sport. The soccer associations of today have provided many opportunities for sport betting, employment and sponsorship to advertise brands or companies. In many schools of the 1900s and today, grassed areas were easily converted to soccer fields so that students could play this sport during or after school time. Older age groups can join soccer clinics and clubs where they can play for enjoyment at learning levels to competitive levels. Watching soccer matches is also considered a recreational and leisure activity among fan groups which follow the current soccer. Film Going out to watch movies was a leisure and recreational activity that was present 100 years ago and now. This activity is popular as many films relate to the current world affairs. This activity would not have survived if not for the extremely low pricing of cinema tickets in the 1900s. The price of tickets has inflated in our era, but this is acceptable as our average income has increased. Conclusion: From the research I have accumulated in recreational and leisure activities of 100 years ago and today, I have found out that a major factor of the changing pursuits has been the shifting of daily lifestyles. The trends originating from media has shaped the many lifestyles of our world today, which has in turn changed our interests. Another factor of our leisure and recreational pursuits is the availability of information and transport we have today that lets us do what we want. However, the popularity of early activities has declined as our society has further developed these activities, while the appeal of the activities has been surpassed by our modern trends and movements.